First-Ever Food Industry Economic Forecast

As the direction of the economy — everything from interest rates and real estate to inflation — continues to garner headlines, it felt like an apt time to gather Southern California’s grocery community for a mid-summer check-in. The first-ever California Grocers Association Food Industry Economic Forecast took place at the GRAMMY Museum in downtown Los Angeles and brought together industry leaders to zero in on macroeconomic factors, such as the supply chain, labor pool, consumer financial health, and opportunities in technology.

In collaboration with The Illuminators, the Food Industry Economic Forecast also served as the front-end of CGA’s strategic planning meeting, which took place the following day and aimed to inspire the organization’s agenda for the next handful of years.

The forecast event paired presentations from Dr. Chris Thornberg and John S. Phillips. Thornberg is the founder of Beacon Economics, a research company which consults with private industry, cities, counties, and public agencies to create economic studies. Phillips is the SVP of Customer Supply Chain and Go-to-Market at PepsiCo.

The PepsiCo executive kicked off the event with an hourlong report on the supply chain and innovation opportunities in the food and beverage industry. His presentation drew plaudits from attendees, especially for its information about smart labels, QR code utilization, and automation. In a world where both consumers and regulators have an insatiable appetite for understanding what’s in food and beverage products and why, smart labels empowered by QR code technology offer the ability for product information to be unconstrained by physical packaging space. Similarly, new advances in automation offers the potential for production to be unbound by human capital.

This last note is important, and it is a central argument in Dr. Thornberg’s work. By the esteemed economist’s thinking labor challenges are not unique to the food industry, and in California, are the product of the persistent housing shortage and demographics. Similar to Phillips, Thornberg believes every business should be pursuing an automation strategy.

Outside of technology and automation, the economist ran through a high volume of key economic indicators, all utilized to illustrate his main contention of the day: The media narratives that focus on the looming recession are misaligned with the data. Instead, data around consumer savings and spending across many discretionary categories leads to a much rosier picture. In fact, the greatest danger to consumers is the doom-loop, recessionary narrative becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy.

With plenty of food for thought to digest, the forecast was followed by an industry mixer where supplier and wholesale executives had the chance to mix and mingle with some of the region’s sharpest grocery retailers. Thank you to everyone who attended, and to our sponsors RMS and FMS. We hope to see you again at one of the Association’s other events this summer or fall.

Healthy Communities Require Choice, Not Its Elimination

The Perris City Council is continuing to work on Ordinance 1423, which seeks to severely restrict what foods and beverages grocers can sell in store checkout areas. It’s a misguided strategy that is unfriendly to businesses and places little faith in Perris residents by dictating a set of “healthy” product choices to the city’s grocery shoppers as defined by politicians. In some cases, literally whole fruit and vegetable products would be forbidden.

Whether shopping for healthy ingredients for a home-cooked meal or simply looking for a treat at the end of a long day, the “when” or “why” shoppers decide what goes into their shopping carts is not for Perris elected officials to dictate.

Grocers support the Perris elected officials who are seeking healthier lifestyles for their community residents, but we also believe nearly every resident would agree that consumer choice and moderation are key components of health. For this reason, the city’s grocery community has urged the City Council to implement Ordinance 1423 in a way that allows consumers to have easy access to a broad mix of product choices in the checkout area of their local grocery store.

We trust in the people of Perris to choose what’s best for them and their families. From the mom-and-pop grocer to the supermarket, grocery stores provide access to healthy food in every community. We take that job seriously and hope the grocery industry can continue to serve Perris residents’ every occasion.

For more information on Ordinance 1423, read the Association’s letter to Mayor Michael Vargas below. To contact the Mayor’s office regarding this matter, call (951) 943-6100, or email at [email protected].

New Speaker Talks Grocery with CGA Representatives

Asm. Robert Rivas (D-Hollister) has known Danny since he was a boy. Danny, a longtime produce manager at Hollister Super, was in the store working when the future Assembly Speaker stopped by the community grocer for a meeting and tour. The two embraced, before quickly catching up and posing for a picture with Hollister Super owner Chang So.

These are the types of connections that make the grocery community, and Hollister Super in particular, so special. Whether it’s the grocer’s role as job-provider or a brick-and-mortar store’s ability to offer a place to find nourishing foods and maybe bump into a friendly face, grocery stores are one of the few public spaces that are truly communal.

“Our stores have been in the community since 1983, and we joke that almost everybody in Hollister has worked here at one point or another.” Hollister Super owner Chang So said. “In fact, it’s even true for me. I left my job in tech world in 2003 to come back and run my family’s business. It’s a special experience to be such a vital part of a community like Hollister, and we were thrilled to have Assemblymember Rivas pay us a visit.”

The future Assembly Speaker joined Hollister Super staff and representatives from the California Grocers Association for a store tour to learn more about the grocery industry’s operations and the challenges facing independent and ethnic grocers. They discussed a number of issues impacting stores up and down the state.

“Independent grocers like Hollister Super feed and nourish communities across the state,” said CGA President and CEO Ron Fong, who attended the store tour. “They really are our lifeblood, and they add so much to the diversity and bounty of food options we have available to us in California.”

When Asm. Rivas becomes Assembly Speaker, the top leadership position in California’s State Assembly, on June 30, it will be the first time since the late 1990s the Speaker role has been held by an elected official outside the Greater Los Angeles Region. It’s an important point of distinction for Hollister Super owner Chang So.

“I’m excited to have someone ascend to the state’s leadership from Hollister,” he explained. “Someone who understands the opportunities and challenges of small communities and community-minded businesses.”